What Will Lithuania Be like in 2050: Four Hypothetical Future Scenarios Emerge

In 2050, we are likely to see some new faces on the international scene. The current Chinese leader Xi Jinping would be 97 by then, Vladimir Putin 98 and the current US President Joe Biden 108. The international balance of power is also likely to look different, with the current G7 countries predicted to be replaced by the emerging E7 by 2050. What do these uncertainties mean for Lithuania in the future? “The growing tension between democratic and autocratic regimes is expected to be one of the most important factors for Lithuania’s future,” said Dr Sigita Trainauskienė, Senior Policy Analyst at the Government Strategic Analysis Centre (STRATA) and Head of the Lithuania 2050 subject team.

At the thematic discussion of the State Progress Strategy Lithuania 2050 titled “A Strong Lithuania in a Changing World: State Security and its Role in the Region and the World”, held at Vilnius University (VU), security experts and policy makers came together to discuss the future security and foreign policy trends by outlining the four main possible scenarios for Lithuania’s future.

Extreme scenarios highlighted

In March, VU and STRATA organised a workshop for the development of future scenarios, which was attended by experts in various fields, as well as representatives of science, business, culture and the public. Four different hypothetical future scenarios emerged from these meetings, mainly relating to the tensions between autocratic and democratic states, and to education – its stagnation or its irreversible breakthrough.

Dr Trainauskienė highlighted four main possible scenarios for the future of Lithuania related to the thematic discussion, focused on the country’s future security perspectives, its role in the region and the international environment.

The first scenario – autocracy and an educational breakthrough – would accompany a shrinking of the European Union (EU) and a weakening of NATO, as the United States finds it increasingly difficult to cope with the economic pressures from China and its allies.

“The strengthened coalition of the emerging economies, dominated by China, India and Russia, is changing the rules of the international system in the early 21st century. World politics is becoming dominated by mercantile interests, to which smaller states are forced to conform. In this scenario, the EU is fragmented into several regional and differently integrated blocs. Lithuania joins forces with other like-minded Central and Eastern European countries. The narrative of the nation’s survival then starts to dominate public policy,” said Dr S. Trainauskienė.

In the second scenario, prolonged tensions on the international scene erupt into an open, large-scale conflict in “no-man’s land”, such as in the Arctic, Antarctica, outer space or elsewhere, resulting in a victory for the united Western bloc. For its part, the rest of the world operates according to the rules of the democratic West, helping not only to ensure the security and stability of the countries in the bloc, but also to effectively coordinate solutions to global problems like the climate crisis. In the end, all the fundamental problems are solved.

In the third scenario, the anti-democratic tendencies on the international scene fluctuate by intensifying and then receding, but they do not seriously undermine EU integration or NATO stability. Russia and China remain the rivals and opponents to the West, although domestic problems limit their capacity to pose a direct threat to Western society. The world remains in a state of uncertain and fragile peace, and Lithuania aspires to become part of a united and integrated Nordic-Baltic region.

In the fourth scenario, liberal democracies fail to defend the rules-based multilateral cooperation, or to free international trade from internal and external pressures to abandon these principles. Paralysed by internal divisions and lacking a sufficient capacity, the EU and NATO start failing to manage the security, energy, currency and migration crises facing Europe. Public policy failures in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as in a small number of Western European countries, start bringing populist authoritarian parties to power. Most of them are directly supported by the Russian and Chinese regimes.

Lithuania is currently in Scenario No. 3

“There was an unequivocal consensus among the workshop participants that we are now operating in the third scenario – democracy is consolidated in Lithuania and in our region, but educational stagnation prevails,” commented Dr Marijus Antonovičius, a political scientist at the VU Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI), who attended the workshop.

However, according to Dr Antonovičius, an agreement was reached on the desired scenario – moving towards a breakthrough in consolidated democracy and education. Currently, a consolidated breakthrough in education is far from the desired result. So why do Lithuania’s foreign and security policies lack a focus on high-quality education?

“One thing we can talk about is the lack of resources in Lithuania. Resources mean an educated, professional population. In Lithuania, at least until the occupation of Crimea, the principle of shock therapy was at work. This means that there has to be a shock to bring about a change, such as 2% spending on defence. Another issue is the lack of social capital. We can also talk about the inability to reach an agreement. It’s about the fact that we function from shock to shock, and it's only during that brief period when unity prevails,” said Dr Antonovičius.

According to the lecturer from VU TSPMI, the issue of the resilience of science was repeatedly raised in the discussions, while the threat of disinformation, which can polarise countries, was highlighted, as well as the new – green, digitalisation and technology – agendas.

“The lack of breakthroughs in education, or not being resilient on all issues, often turn us to our partners in order to seek security, when we could be contributing to those issues ourselves. For example, the Green Agenda was mentioned very frequently in the workshops. Many of the participants mentioned that Lithuania has a good starting point in the energy transformation, and that it could possibly be one of the first to achieve a green breakthrough, which would give Lithuania a lot of room for manoeuvring in the diplomatic arena.

This is already evident in the current situation, where Lithuania is ready to be one of the first countries to switch away from Russian energy sources without significant costs. Lithuania has also invested 2% in the military, which gives us better opportunities to manoeuvre in the European context,” explained the lecturer.

Two scenarios, if something goes wrong

“There are also two scenarios that can be talked about as deviations. This means cases where something goes wrong,” said Dr Antonovičius.

The first scenario, explained by the lecturer, is that we can lose democracy, even though we make breakthroughs in education and science. This scenario may be influenced by the polarisation of society, where the population no longer trusts the decision-making power of a democratic state.

“I would add another form of tension, which was particularly strong during the pandemic. I also saw it when it came to the military support for Ukraine. There was a growing need for expertise, specialised knowledge and a democratic mandate. There is a very clear intersection here, but the question is how to deal with it – whether to push it down to the level of the local self-government, or otherwise,” said Dr Antonovičius, adding that the tensions between autocratic and democratic regimes were also a focus of the discussion. There was a consideration of what the situation would look like in a consolidated democracy, where democratic systems remain in the countries that are important for Lithuania.

The second scenario, according to Dr Antonovičius, is one in which we may lose our current democracy and the education, science and innovation system lags behind the needs of the time. In this case, according to the lecturer, Lithuania would become a Hungarian-style liberal democracy, balancing between the economic blocs and the creation of an oligarchic system.
The full recording of the first thematic discussion can be viewed here.

The preparatory work for the State Progress Strategy Lithuania 2050 will continue. In May and June, a total of six discussions will take place in Vilnius, Kaunas and Klaipėda, where experts from various fields will discuss possible scenarios for Lithuania’s future, focusing on topics that are important for the country’s development: security, society, education (science and technology), economics, climate change and governance.

The State Progress Strategy Lithuania 2050 is being prepared using an innovative Foresight method. The planned duration for the implementation of the strategy is more than twenty years (from 2024 until 2050). The legal draft is to be submitted to the Seimas by 10 March 2023. The Lithuania 2050 Strategy is being developed by the Office of the Government in collaboration with the Seimas’ Committee for the Future, STRATA and Vilnius University.