VU Political Analyst Jurkonis: Putin Will Be History Very Soon
The Kremlin regards the success story of Ukraine as an existential threat for the survival of its own regime, says Vytis Jurkonis, political analyst and lecturer at Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI). He is convinced that Vladimir Putin is already at the end of his road. In a VU podcast titled Mokslas Be Pamokslų, V. Jurkonis argues that Ukraine will undoubtedly win, but the time this will take will also depend on our support.
When Russia started a war in Ukraine on 24 February 2022, many have raised the question of why Putin decided to attack Ukraine. V. Jurkonis offers several possible explanations on how this may have happened. The first, according to him, was the expectation of a quick invasion and occupation of Ukraine.
‘It is plain to see that this plan did not work out. The extent of Ukraine’s resistance and international support for it was not something they expected. It is important to underscore this point, because, in my view, the plan had been somewhat different,’ says V. Jurkonis.
The second likely cause, according to V. Jurkonis, was the goal of laying waste to the country once a quick victory proved impossible by shelling cities and attacking peaceful civilians so that Ukraine would be hurt as badly as possible even if Russia does not win the war (and there are plenty of indications that it will not).
‘One very important point should be mentioned here. For many years now, the Kremlin’s policy focused on preventing at all costs Ukraine’s becoming a success story: no reforms should be implemented and the country should be seen as a corrupt state. This was done to make sure that a success story like that does not become a massive source of inspiration for the whole region and Russian citizens in particular. The Kremlin views Ukraine’s success story as a certain existential threat for its own survival,’ V. Jurkonis explains.
He thinks another possible – albeit less likely – explanation is the Kremlin’s revenge on Ukraine. According to V. Jurkonis, on multiple occasions, Putin made fairly clear that he doesn’t consider Ukraine to be an autonomous, independent state. Ukraine’s turning to the transatlantic community and adoption of decisions that displeased the Kremlin is something Putin tends to exact punishment for and, as we all see, do so in the harshest terms, he says.
Does it all depend only on Putin?
The war in Ukraine does not depend on Putin alone, V. Jurkonis insists. According to him, there are plenty of Putin’s friends, powerful oligarchs and characters of various kinds with occasional in-fighting that may have had an interest in starting a war in Ukraine. However, V. Jurkonis points out that the Kremlin’s actions do not appear to be adequate: Was there a lack of information in the Kremlin? Was something left unsaid?
‘This is characteristic of authoritarian regimes, as institutions get destroyed over time. When any and all opposing views are being suppressed, few people remain in the dictator’s circle that will object to him,’ says V. Jurkonis.
It sometimes appears, he says, that Putin himself doesn’t have a very clear grasp of what is happening not only in Ukraine but also in Russia. However, we should not deceive ourselves into thinking that he is a sick man, because most of the actions taken in Ukraine cannot happen without the Kremlin’s knowledge. Both Putin and his closest circle are to blame for the war in Ukraine, V. Jurkonis says.
‘Some are asking if the Russian people are to blame. I know for a fact that most of the Russian people feel shame. They feel they are responsible for this and are apologizing. With that said, we should also understand there is a massive effort to eliminate all dissenting opinions in the Russian society, to ‘turn out the lights’ and leave only the brain-washing machinery operating. The goal is to make the Russian population parrot the narrative of the great Russian nation and Ukrainians that are supposedly suppressing the Russians. This is certainly a factor – and not a small one at that. Russia is a huge country and there is plenty of heterogeneity out there, but one part of that heterogeneity is a fair number of people who oppose the war, support Ukraine and would prefer to see a different Russia,’ he says.
Lack of determination in the West
Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine back in 2014 and has been stoking separatist conflicts in the eastern part of Ukraine for eight years now, with more than 14,000 casualties. The military incursion of 24 February is but an escalation of the ongoing war. According to V. Jurkonis, the West had no lack of indications and opportunities to reconsider its stance and give a much stricter response not only in words but also in terms of concrete actions to the Kremlin’s continued violations of international law.
‘What is the full extent of the Kremlin’s ambition? In fact, we shouldn’t even be asking questions like these. Maybe your average Joe wants to be the king of Madagascar, too. He may indeed have such aspirations, but it does not follow that everyone should indulge him. Putin may have well some aspirations of his own. One could find an island for him where he would feel comfortable, be the lord and ruler over himself.
The problem, however, is elsewhere: The international community still fails to connect the dots and see a direct link between the violations of human rights in Russia and the demolishing of institutions and independent media. Everyone who says that this would amount interfering with domestic affairs is complicit in the aggression that spills over the boundaries of the authoritarian state,’ says V. Jurkonis.
Not reacting to the crimes in Belarus as a signal for Putin
The 9 August 2020 presidential election in Belarus, which is regarded as rigged by the country’s opposition and Western democracies, was marked by protests of unexpected scale and duration. The 28-year of Lukashenko’s rule, hundreds of thousands of protesters and the regime’s highly brutal response to them have brought the issue of the Belarusian regime back into the European policy agenda. However, according to V. Jurkonis, the inability properly to respond to the unlawful behavior of a country as small as Belarus served as a massive signal to Putin that he is free to do whatever he pleases.
And, Putin made a miscalculation with Ukraine, V. Jurkonis is convinced because the West mobilized around the issue to a much greater extent this time. The response in terms of sanctions and the support from individual countries was far greater than Putin had expected.
‘Putin and the Kremlin’s regime he’s been building are at the end of the road. The end will be colossal, it will be tragic and it will cost dearly. This is but another proof that the man could have left any time he wanted and, whether we like Putin or not, he would not have looked all that bad from a historical perspective. Whereas now it seems that during Putin’s reign, the entire country went off the rails and is hurtling into the abyss,’ says V. Jurkonis.
According to him, there is not much use in analyzing Putin’s psychological profile and attempting to understand his thinking process.
‘There are plenty of books out there on his character, his close circle and family so as to draw up Putin’s psychological profile. It sometimes seemed as if we in the Western world viewed Putin as somebody highly charismatic. As if we were watching a movie. We should ask those killed in Georgia and Ukraine whether this felt like a movie to them. I honestly could not care less as to what Putin is thinking.
What I care about is what we – as a community that values democracy and human rights – are thinking. Are we prepared to defend our values? What Putin is thinking is a third-rate issue. That is not completely irrelevant, of course, but the time for negotiations and considerations of how to appease him is now over. We have tried everything, be it dialogue, resetting of relations or pandering to the man – and none of it worked. Through all of our actions, we encouraged this aggression. We made mistakes and now have to fix them. As for Putin, he will be history very soon,’ says V. Jurkonis.