Strategy Lithuania 2050 Developed Using Foresight Methodology: What Is It and Why Is It Used?

What sort of a country would we like to live in three decades from now? How to make decisions aimed at affecting a future that does not exist yet? One of the ways is the so-called foresight methodology which was used for the very first time in our country for the development of the State Progress Strategy Lithuania 2050.

“Today, insights into the future is no longer a luxury – they are a necessity. Only with knowledge on different potential scenarios of the future can we expect to manage such challenges as climate change, increasingly diverse inequality, disruption brought on by latest technology, and others,” said Dr. Erika Vaiginienė, Head of Strategic Planning Department at Vilnius University (VU), in her presentation of the methodology for the development of the State Progress Strategy Lithuania 2050.

According to Dr. Sigita Trainauskienė, Senior Policy Analyst at the Government Strategic Analysis Centre (STRATA) and Lithuania 2050 Project Leader, the traditional evidence-based approach to public policy making is no longer enough in a world of rapid change, complexity and ambiguousness: “Future-focused governments should rely on a process that allows them to create knowledge on potential future scenarios through various data, imagination, and creativity. That’s why we decided to use the foresight methodology for the development of the State Progress Strategy.”

What is the foresight methodology and why is it used?

Future scenarios is a way of thinking about the future and identifying possibilities and threats that can arise over the coming years and decades. Future scenarios allows various audiences – businesses, politicians, researchers, various public groups – to envision a possible future in order to improve decision making and strategy formation. Some countries, including Finland, the Netherlands, Singapore, have used this methodology for governance for several decades. But in Lithuania this is the first such attempt.

“Every foresight has its own unique methodology, since it is the result of numerous factors, e.g. the aim of its creation, its scope, time spent, funds allocated, available competencies, and other resources. Irrespective of the uniqueness of each foresight’s methodology, all foresights go through such steps as identification of scope, mobilisation, future forecast, and recommendations,” Dr. Vaiginienė explained.

Dr. Trainauskienė said that, in the preparatory stage of strategy development, STRATA researchers analysed the long-term strategy formation processes of seven countries – Ireland, Estonia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, Spain, Finland, and the United Arab Emirates, and also analysed the experience Lithuania has had in developing its long-term strategies. Furthermore, in the preparatory stage, the researchers carried out initial analysis of megatrends and their effect on state progress, surveyed experts, analysed the current situation, as well as carried out a secondary analysis of weak signals.

Strategy development is an open and inclusive process

The organisers of the strategy Lithuania 2050 named involvement of stakeholders and citizens as one of the key factors for the strategy’s success. STRATA researchers have already held 10 discussions with citizens in various Lithuanian regions, including one with Lithuanian expatriates. These discussions served as a way to find out the citizens’ expectations, hopes and fears regarding Lithuania’s future, and the information received will be used for the development of the strategy. Also, three scenario-creation workshops took place: there, experts of different fields discussed and sought to identify key factors of changes as well as relevant problems of the future.

“After collecting relevant insights from all the stakeholders, we will move to creating future scenarios, identifying the “black swans”, and developing the “what if” scenarios. Possible futures will also be discussed in topical discussions in order to gain a better perspective in each of the defined topics,” said Dr. Vaiginienė.

Developed scenarios will be tested, also by involving the general public, making it possible for people to contribute to the creation of a common vision. For this purpose, an experiential design exhibition will be organised.

Then, the work will be focused on the final outcome: creation of the common vision and alternative roadmaps to achieve the vision, as well as presentation of the State Progress Strategy Lithuania 2050 document and recommendations on action plans and ecosystem transformation.

Plenty of myths still abound

Although the foresight methodology was started to be used in different sectors in the 40s of the XXth century, and due to successful results it was also applied to national long-term strategies in the 90s, it is still a new phenomenon in Lithuania.

Other countries typically develop their long-term strategies for three or four years; however, for their current strategy Lithuanian scientists and researchers have very little time – less than two years. Strategic planning opens up plenty of opportunities for the society, but in Lithuania there are often various myths or even unsubstantiated fears associated with such novelties.

The VU researcher rebuffed some of these beliefs: “For example, according to one of the myths, a strategy must not exceed one or two pages. That is absolutely false. If we consider where everything has come from, then yes, it would be ideal if the communication part of a strategy is only one page long and can be clearly presented to the public. But that one page can be a result of hundreds of pages of analytical data and analysis. In our society, there is often a distorted view of strategic planning, imagining that it’s enough to sit down, discuss and write down a one-page summary.”

Dr. Vaiginienė explained that the foresight methodology is unique in that it involves many forecasting methods, particularly qualitative methods. According to the scientist, considering the level of prevalence of these methods in Lithuania, it can be concluded that they are still in the initial stage. Previously, attempts were made to use foresight methodologies but those attempts lacked two key stages – the roadmaps and the recommendations on how to transform the ecosystems.

“Those who are used to evaluate everything through numbers feel great discomfort with the qualitative process. They ask: how can we dream about the future? How can we speak about a time thirty years from now? And the answer is that there are certain ways to formulate and ask these questions. Although some were skeptical in the beginning, after trying this approach they later changed their opinion, saying that their attempt of thinking about Lithuania’s future had been successful after all,” the researcher explained.

According to Dr. Vaiginienė, the development of the strategy Lithuania 2050 is a planned yet flexible process that can be adjusted depending on successes or failures in particular stages of the development. Also, the methodology team is in constant consultation with experts from the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission and Danish Design Center. After implementation of every activity, the results are discussed in order to manage risks and ensure the maximum quality of the final outcome.

The planned duration for the implementation of the strategy Lithuania 2050 is more than twenty years (from 2024 until 2050). The legal draft is to be submitted to the Seimas until 10 March 2023. The strategy Lithuania 2050 is being developed by the Office of the Government in collaboration with the Seimas’ Committee for the Future, STRATA and Vilnius University.

For more details on the State Progress Strategy Lithuania 2050 and its development, see www.Lietuva2050.lt