Prof. Spiridonov: If No Action is Taken to Tackle the Climate Change, We Will See More Extreme Events in Lithuania

There may be only 5 to 20 years left to tackle climate change. If no action is taken, entire ecosystems may change and people will no longer be able to live in some areas due to extreme weather conditions, Professor Andrej Spiridonov of the Faculty of Chemistry and Geosciences of Vilnius University (VU CHGF) said on the "Mokslas be Pamokslų podcast. Technologies to offset carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are already being developed but not yet widely used.

According to Prof. A. Spiridonov, climate change is evolving on a longer scale than, say, the COVID-19 pandemic, making it harder to change.
“CO2 emitted into the atmosphere remains there, thus worsening the conditions for the existence of all mankind. Rapid events draw our attention, but we are running out of time to tackle climate change as certain turning points may be reached very soon,” he said.

According to the professor, the geopolitical crisis caused by the Russian war against Ukraine is partly fueled at the cost of the climate. To reduce the effect of dictatorships, we should switch to renewable energy sources as soon as possible and no longer pay them money.

“Russia has gas and oil, the global market could lose them. We could invest in the development of renewable energy, but it is probably not that easy as it requires rare metals, minerals, and high technology. These metals and minerals are concentrated in several locations, for example, critical metals are mainly found in China,” Prof. A. Spiridonov said.

Climate change can still be tackled

According to the VU scientist, special efforts are needed to make sure the global climate does not rise by more than 1.5 °C.

"It is estimated that many that are currently in balance would lose it. For example, permafrost would begin to melt and release methane, which would further accelerate warming. If the Greenland glaciers start to melt, they will not stop. Currently, they are protected by their high altitude because the weather is colder over there.

Some glaciers near West Antarctica are already believed to be unstable. If they detach, the sea level will rise by 2 meters. This will lead to locations that are home to several hundred million people being uninhabitable, thus causing a wave of migration,” said Prof. A. Spiridonov.

The professor named possible changes in the ecosystems: rainforests will turn into savannas; meanwhile, savannas would see the formation of dunes. Large areas can turn out to be too hot for people to live in, for example, due to heat and humidity, this could happen around the Mediterranean.

“Medium latitudes are the biggest polluters, but the people who will suffer the most are the ones who have contributed the least: people from Africa, South and Southeast Asia, South America. Climate refugees will flow wherever possible,” said the lecturer at the Faculty of Chemistry and Geosciences.

According to Prof. A. Spiridonov, although the climate is warming, winters may become colder.

“There are estimates that the stratospheric polar vortex is weakening, causing the stratosphere to heat up, with masses of cold air coming from the north pole, so winters could be unusually cold,” he said.

According to the scientist, if the ice of the Greenland glaciers were to melt en masse, the lakes around there would overflow, and the Gulf Stream would be disrupted.

“In that scenario, Europe would experience a couple hundred years of terrible colds. The continent would look like Alaska, it would be impossible to grow conventional crops. The whole world would suffer from high temperatures; meanwhile, the northern hemisphere would witness a cold anomaly,” Prof. A. Spiridonov added.

There are ways to stop climate change

According to the professor, climatologists forecast various scenarios for Lithuania. If no action is taken, extreme events would increase exponentially: droughts, rains, cold episodes in winter, storms, floods. It is, therefore, necessary to reduce CO2 emissions and look for technologies that effectively remove and sequester CO2.

There are various technological solutions but they are not yet widely applied.

“Iceland has experimental power plants where the air is blown through a certain chemical reactor that captures CO2. Using energy, CO2 is released and stored in tanks, then pumped into the rocks. It then reacts little by little with the rocks and turns them into other minerals that can be stable for millions of years. CO2 is effectively neutralized,” he said.

According to Prof. A. Spiridonov, it would be possible to create more wetlands, like swamps, which remove carbon and store it in itself.

“Sediment builds up and is buried, which is how coal came into being. It would be like stimulating a natural process. Many areas in Lithuania are reclaimed, so if we were to return the reclamation infrastructure to its original state, we would have a very large sequestration resource,” the scientist said.

The VU professor notes that such things should not be left to individual choice. There is a need for a political decision that will have an impact on all of our fate.

“Efforts must be made to influence political decisions. We have seen the idea of fossil fuel companies inviting everyone to measure their CO2 footprint, thus shifting responsibility onto the consumer. But do we really have much choice? If there is no subway, I can’t choose it, no matter how hard I try. There are important structural things that need to be implemented,” he said.

According to Prof. A. Spiridonov, more land should be set aside for forests to grow plant-based food instead of livestock and to obtain the same nutrients from plants. Public transport should also be made more efficient and better-developed.

How much time do we have left to address climate change? The scientist says that the 1.5 °C is very often cited as the limit, and we are at 1.2 °C.

“We can talk about a period of 10-15 years, other calculations suggest about five years. These figures depend on the measurement error frames. Scientists cannot precisely say whether it will be 5 or 20 years. Because the measurements are noisy, the projections are variable due to the complexity of the system. We should take immediate action to deal with it. The world needs to stop arguing and unite to resolve a serious matter,” said Prof. A. Spiridonov.