N. Šepetys: Russia’s Internal Explosion Will Take Place as the People There Have Not Yet Been Turned Into Complete Puppets

“Controlling information and property and isolating people from the possibility of increasing that property is important tools for a totalitarian society, which is a pillar of a totalitarian regime,” Associate Professor at the Faculty of History Nerijus Šepetys said at Vilnius University (VU) Podcast Mokslas be Pamokslų.

According to him, Russia and China are currently making a lot of retotalitarianization efforts but they lack the intellectual focus on connecting people to the system. And the biggest mistake was starting the war with the outside (Ukraine) at a time when the preparations for the establishment of the regime within the country had not yet been completed, so sooner or later, Russia’s internal explosion will take place as the Russians have not yet become complete puppets.

Totalitarianism originated in Italy

The origins of totalitarianism go back to the days of Benito Mussolini’s leadership and the introduction of a dictatorship in Italy, when Mussolini’s supporters started internally calling the political system they were building totalitarian. Over time, the term has become used externally, and the use of this term has taken root not so much in terms of some external features as in terms of specific regimes, i.e., National Socialist Germany after 1938, Stalin’s Soviet Union from 1934 to 1964, and China.

“When we talk about totalitarianism, we mean a system of government that is strictly ideological and seeks to control all areas of life in that state, i.e., there is comprehensive control over people’s (private and even intimate) lives,” N. Šepetys said.

There cannot be many states like that because establishing totalitarian societies, systems, and regimes requires special preparation and systematic work.

Great retotalitarianization efforts in Russia and China

Asked whether today’s Russia could be considered an example of a totalitarian regime, the historian said that both Russia and China are countries that put a great deal of effort into retotalitarianization or new totalitarianization. “They are trying to turn citizens into subjects, a totalitarian state cannot have people with their own personal interests. Following the war or the economic crisis, all three of the aforementioned countries had a lot of people who had no property at all and were easy to manipulate,” the historian said.

Thus, establishing a totalitarian state requires the subjugation of society, and the subjugation requires the absence of people with personal interests, people must be willing to sacrifice their personal well-being for some “higher” state purpose. But according to the historian, people like that are hard to find. “This requires the destruction of an economy based on private freedom of initiative and modern selfish society, and we can see where Russia and China are headed. China has been trying to severely restrict and control both large and medium-sized private property for the past 5-6 years. They are fighting access to free information within the countries, and control information coming from the outside,” the Associate Professor named a couple of signs of totalitarianization.

According to him, this has become especially evident after the beginning of the war in Ukraine as Russia made the attempt to fully limit information, which is somewhat comical because the vast majority of communication devices are made in the West, and bypassing all restrictions is quite easy.

“Thus, controlling information and property and isolating people from the possibility of increasing that property is important tools for a totalitarian society, which is a pillar of a totalitarian regime,” the researcher noted.

How does one achieve full control of people?

As the historian told on the podcast, the destruction of society or its enslavement takes place through the destruction of connections between people, which can be both vertical and horizontal. “Researchers are debating whether it is possible to create a society that has no horizontal connections between people at all. However, examples show that in Stalin’s Russia or in war-torn Germany, horizontal contact between people became very fragile. People did not trust each other enough to develop personal relationships that would lead anywhere. Interpersonal relationships were developed only via an imaginary commander,” N. Šepetys said.

In the Soviet Union, anyone could be suspected and persecuted for their past, for their fictitious or suspected relationships with certain people. Back then society was governed by sowing fear, through terror, mass destruction, confiscation of property, arrests, and exile. That way, people understood that no one is safe and that the law is only at the disposal of those who have power.

“Russia is certainly moving in that direction, this has become very evident as the country launched the war and made drastic changes to the penal code, banning certain things, restricting freedom of assembly and expression. But that doesn’t mean everyone is equally unsafe. Definitely not. All you have to do is show loyalty to the government, to the regime, and you’ll be safe,” he said.

Achieving full control of the people is very difficult, not only does it require a very large repressive apparatus but the government itself must be focused on putting constant pressure on the people.

Not enough intellectual focus to control the nation

As for the current Russia and China, the researcher points out that there is a lack of intellectual focus on connecting people to the system. Desperate actions are taken with a greater look at the past but without any specific current aggressive idea that should lead to the conquest of the world; otherwise, there is no point in creating this regime because all people will want to escape it.

“The establishment of a totalitarian regime must be purposefully structured, which takes years. One cannot focus on external enemies and the enslavement of people within the country all at the same time,” the historian said.

According to him, Russia made a mistake: it started a war with the outside before fully training its people and creating the appropriate conditions for the establishment of the regime inside; therefore, sooner or later, Russia’s internal explosion will take place as the people were not prepared to become complete puppets.

An important tool is an indoctrination

“Ideology in itself is important for mobilizing the elite so that people have the tool to explain the discrepancies between reality and the promoted worldview. Ideology must explain this difference in favor of fiction. This is not the case in Russia, the ideology there is fragmented, eclectic, and pure postmodernism, but in some cases it is probable,” the researcher said.

Most non-totalitarian but authoritarian regimes and dictatorships use a universal weapon - propaganda, which is characteristic not only of despotic structures of power but also of completely normal forms of communication in the modern world, such as advertising, which seeks to present a more beautiful image in lieu of reality. However, N. Šepetys noted that another important thing that the regime needs in Russia and China is indoctrination. “These are contents taken from one or another ideological context and systematically implemented through traditional media for seniors and through traditional educational structures for students. Officials of the state apparatus are also indoctrinated via certain courses on what the state expects and demands from them. This way, the person internally splits into a personal and governmental position,” the historian said.

But in addition to this supportive power that comes from above - propaganda, ideology, indoctrination - there must be other things, such as mass terror, which does not exist in Russia.

Russia is not totalitarian because people still do not tend to sacrifice their personal interests for the “higher good,” they care about their material well-being and are dissatisfied with the economic crisis caused by Western sanctions. Mobilized soldiers go to war not because they want to defeat the enemies who harm them but because of the reward that promises them material well-being.

Therefore, the historian considers the economic weakening of Russia to be a very effective move by the Western states, as it widens the gap between the interests of the people and the state.

Democratic society in Russia - mission possible?

Russian society seems to be more inclined to tolerate the regime and accustomed to living a double life; however, things that pass from one generation to the next do not happen automatically, people learn them. The historian believes the same is true when it comes to democracy.

“Russia’s democratic experience is short and narrow. But whatever they are, they take effort. That democratic revolution that took place in Russia in 1917 and the democratic revolution of 1988-1990 did take place, but there was a lack of people for whom it proved valuable. The complete overthrow of the communist regime did not take place, the final detotalitarianization and decommunization did not take place, and, therefore, democratic society has not been established either.

Democratic efforts have been forgotten and things took a different turn. This was probably due to more psychological matters related to communist heritage. The Communist rule has been in Russia for a very long time, it has always been anti-social, making it very difficult to move to a democratic, heedful society. Someone or something has to set it in motion, shock, and mobilize because people themselves are not inclined to help each other.

Enabling a functioning democracy and healthy society calls for meeting an abundance of conditions. Those conditions have been purposefully eradicated for many years.

Will we see the regime collapse?

The whole world wonders what it would take for Russia to become a democracy. The interlocutor says that this requires a change not only in society but also in the people in power. Public authorities in Russia are appealing to those who want to make use of the situation and build their own well-being without putting in much effort, not those who want to take initiative and make a change. And people who tend to take responsibility focus more on their families and personal lives rather than on public and state matters.

This leads to the emergence of parallel societies where some take care of themselves and ignore everything else, while others wait for the state to take care of them and come to the rescue. The former increasingly retreat to their own enclosed spaces or move abroad, while others remain increasingly isolated from the outside world.

“Many live in this regime, treating it as a given and not considering an alternative life. The constant emphasis on how great Russia is really dampening people and prevents them from thinking about Russia in any other way than just destiny,” he believes.

According to him, what is happening in Russia right now could, probably, be interpreted as an increase in chaos and unpredictability. Situations like this usually lead to internal conflicts and changes. Many people monitor the situation and take into account analogs and past experiences to predict civil wars or turmoil.

“Although the predictions so far have shown that Russia is not exactly a country that would follow scenarios of other countries or even its own history, I tend to agree with the predictions that the turmoil will happen, the only question is which area will be the first to crumble as many of them are currently experiencing tensions: economy, territorial governance, elite, social and ethnic groups. All you can do is wait and stay hopeful,” N. Šepetys said.