Four Scenarios for Lithuania in 2050: Can We Foresee the Future – And How?

What sort of a country would we like to live in three decades from now? How do we make decisions aimed at affecting a future that does not yet exist? “While it is impossible to plan the future, it does not follow we should not be thinking about it,” says Artūras Vasiliauskas, Pro-Rector for Partnerships at Vilnius University

At the discussion titled “Four scenarios for Lithuania in 2050: Can we foresee the future – and how?” as part of the discussion festival Būtent, those responsible for the strategy presented its drafting process and four different scenarios for the future of Lithuania. Working with experts from various fields and people from sectors such as civil society and non-governmental organizations, business, culture, and science, the Lithuania 2050 team prepared four hypothetical scenarios for the future of Lithuania, relating to the tensions between autocratic and democratic states, and to education – its stagnation or its irreversible breakthrough, explains Justinas Mickus, Policy Analyst at the Government Strategic Analysis Centre (STRATA).

The State Progress Strategy Lithuania 2050 is being prepared using an innovative foresight method. The project team points to the active participation of the interested parties and the public as one of the key factors of the project’s success. According to Dr. Erika Vaiginienė, Associate Professor at Vilnius University, who was responsible for the methodology of the project, this level of participation ensured the transparency of the strategy, because it prevented lobbyists from having undue influence.

Why we need to plan for the future

One of the key elements in drafting the strategy was the identification of the so-called “black swans.” This metaphor is used to explain ways in which unforeseeable and unexpected events impact the society. But Dr. Vasiliauskas also draws attention to the importance of “grey swans”.

“To give an example, Lithuania was faced with three different crises in the last couple of years, namely the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the migration crisis. The possibility of a pandemic such as this was raised a decade ago by numerous people, but no-one listened, no preparations were made. With respect to the war in Ukraine, we could not foresee its exact scale or date, but it was clear that we had an aggressive neighbor who was always voicing its discontent and claims about Ukraine. The migration crisis may have been more difficult to predict. Lithuania felt rather insulated from the processes of globalization, but ultimately they reached it, too. All of these are ‘grey swans.’ Foreseeing the future, I think, is about identifying such ‘grey swans,’” says Dr. Vasiliauskas.

According to him, if we think historically, we must consider the long-term perspective, because some processes are centuries old. One of the key processes in Lithuania’s history, for example, is Europeanization.

“Europeanization probably started in the 14th century, culminating in the 20th. This process has lasted for centuries and we want to continue on this path because we deem it beneficial in a number of ways,” says Dr. Vasiliauskas.

Aušra Maslauskaitė, Professor of Sociology at Vytautas Magnus University, emphasizes that while the future is impossible to foresee, it does make sense to talk about it. One reason why is the possibility of such discussions becoming self-fulfilling prophecies.

“The way we see the future and, especially, the way we talk about it both represent our orientation towards the future and simultaneously shape it. I, therefore, think it makes a lot of sense to draft scenarios for Lithuania in 2050. Especially because the future is not all that far, looking from a long-term perspective. Social processes take a long time. If we consider the ways in which Lithuania has changed since the 90s, some aspects would be truly unrecognizable, while in other respects we would notice a lot of inertia,” says Prof. Maslauskaitė.

Attention to education

When thinking about the future of the society, the focus is primarily placed on demographic trends. Lithuania is estimated to have a population of some 2 million people in 2050, with a 34% smaller working-age population. These demographic trends, according to Prof. Maslauskaitė, are fairly accurate, provided that no fundamental geopolitical shifts or cataclysms take place. Therefore, the predictions for 2050 are something we can rely on.

“Our chances of reversing the demographic trends are very limited. Instead, we should focus our efforts on slowing down the decline as much as possible,” says Prof. Maslauskaitė.

If we had no strategies for foreseeing the future, innovation would be impossible, too. Dr. Vaiginienė points out that space travel and mobile phones were made possible exactly by the foresight method. Another important aspect the discussants emphasized was education, without which, according to them, no industry would be able to operate effectively.

“Why should we care about these hypothetical scenarios for Lithuania? Education is very important for our country because our greatest asset is its people. It is a key factor, because education quality and breakthroughs will help us navigate all areas. The same is true of democracy. On the one hand, the people are tired of the feeling of insecurity and the government’s inability to implement long-term reforms, which makes the longing for strong-arm politics understandable and attractive, especially when one looks at countries like Singapore.

On the other hand, in the light of sensitive social inequality and inclusion issues in Lithuania, we all see that strong-arm policies would make it harder for those less included and more overlooked to stay visible. Again, this is about the kind of society we want. A breakthrough can be seen as building large bridges, but what happens to all others? Perhaps this is what makes democracy – something more modest, but also more equal – a better choice,’ says Mickus.

Within the framework of these four scenarios of the future, the stage of creating Lithuania’s future vision will begin this fall, with more than 100 co-creators submitting their proposals – these are various non-governmental organizations, communities, businesses and various institutions that have expressed their desire to contribute to the development of the strategy.

“The collected information will then be summarized and we will proceed to drafting the Lithuania 2050 Strategy document and recommendations on the action plan,” explains Dr. Vaiginienė.

The planned duration for the implementation of the strategy Lithuania 2050 is more than twenty years (from 2024 until 2050). The legal draft is to be submitted to the Seimas by 10 March 2023. The Lithuania 2050 Strategy is being developed by the Office of the Government in collaboration with the Seimas Committee for the Future, STRATA, and Vilnius University.

For more details on the State Progress Strategy Lithuania 2050 and its development, visit www.Lietuva2050.lt. Find more articles on security, society, education (incl. science and technology), economics, climate change, and governance at VU News.